Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have extended the conversation and certainly remain in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings are reflected in particular weekly matches and to source matches or correlations that the betting market has overlooked.
Some bettors track traditional markets, while others track more specialized markets to ensure we’re using the best market for a particular thesis or angle.
Matchup Angle: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford shows situational advantage against Arizona Cardinals
• As we studied this summer, those who race less (and race with less success) tend to attract more situations than they create for themselves.
• Matthew Stafford has the third-lowest rushing average in the NFL and is traditionally one of the league’s most situational signal callers. The veteran dominates the structure, especially the weak secondary levels.
• This Sunday, he will take on an Arizona defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in both pressures and separations allowed. The Cardinals offer a perfect match for a quarterback like Stafford, who is allowed to operate in an offense structure where time in the pocket can continually find open receivers.
Bets to consider: I play Matthew Stafford passing, Rams team total overs, Rams betting and some similar game combining these angles.
Matchup Angle: The Buffalo Bills’ secondary will elevate the team
• In the year In 2021, PFF studied the importance of secondary receivers in the modern NFL, especially in the playoffs.
When we look at the playoffs from 2006-2020, the dynamic is even more pronounced… having a good receiver or two is enough to win over most teams, but it may not be the best teams in January and February when it matters most.
• In the year Writing in 2021, the study was early on when the Bills struggled to win big games due to a lack of secondary options behind Stefon Diggs.
• We can see some value in terms of market value with the Bills giving Khalil Shaqir, who has played 75% of the team’s snaps over the past two weeks.
• Shakir was terrible. He was above average in creating separation and was one of the best receivers in the league after the ball was released. With the emergence of Kincaid, as well, it looks like the Bills finally have some solid weapons behind Stefon Diggs.
• The Eagles allowed the second most turnovers of any team. If the Bills are going to win, Shakir needs to prove that leverage is necessary.
Bets to consider: I’ll bet on Bills alts and matchup parlays centered around the Bills and their passing attack, including Shaqir in many builds.