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In the meantime, let’s examine where the smart funds are leaning on Saturday’s loaded college basketball slate.
Creighton (18-7, ranked 17th) has won two straight games and defeated Georgetown 94-72. On the other hand, Butler (16-9) has dropped two of its last three games and fell to Marquette 78-72. This line opened by Creighton is roughly a 3-point road favorite, as some books open Creighton -2.5 while others open as low as Creighton -3.5. Regardless of the opener, the crowd thinks this line is too low and is rushing to the window to put up points against Creighton, who has a better record and ranking. However, we see Creighton standing at -3 despite accepting 77% of spread bets. Some shops also briefly went to -2.5. Typically, if a team receives such lopsided support, you’ll see them go up to -4 or -5. This lack of activity indicates a sharp line stand or some reverse line movement on Butler, with the fulls favoring the unpopular home dog and the points. Butler has value as a low-level undrafted prospect against a team with a high turnover (54% ATS over the past two seasons). Butler is one of the more contrarian plays of his era, accepting only 23% of spread bets. Ken Pom beat Creighton by just one point (76-75), giving Butler a practical value of +3. Butler’s system matchup (80 ppg) is a “dog that can score,” meaning they’re more likely to guard against speed or yard coverage. Butler is better at the free throw line (79% vs 77%) and has a better shooting percentage (29% vs 26%). Butler is 11-3 at home this season. Butler beat Creighton on the road Feb. 2, 99-98.
Wisconsin (17-8, ranked 20th) just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 62-54 win at Ohio State. Meanwhile, Iowa (14-11) has won and lost its last six games, falling to Maryland 78-66. This line opens with Wisconsin as a 1.5-point road favorite. The crowd sees an easy layup, putting a short chalk on Wisconsin Road. However, we see Wisconsin fall from -1.5 to -1 despite accepting 69% of bets. This would indicate a buy low against Iowa at home, triggering a reversal line move in favor of the Hawkeyes. Iowa accepts only 31% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrast to “low bets, high dollars” bets split in their favor. Iowa has the edge in offense, averaging 84 ppg compared to 74 ppg for Wisconsin. Iowa also has better offensive efficiency (16th vs 19th), better effective field goal percentage (53% vs 52%), better turnover percentage (8th vs 67%) and better free throw shooting (78% vs 76%). Iowa is worth a buy-in with a team that has a high turnover rate (54% ATS over the past two seasons). Iowa is 11-3 at home and Wisconsin is just 3-6 on the road. This is revenge for Iowa’s 83-72 road loss to Wisconsin on Jan. 2. Those looking to back Wisconsin would be wise to buy the hook (+1.5).
Kansas (19-6, ranked No. 6) has dropped two of its last three games and was crushed by Texas Tech 79-50. Likewise, Oklahoma (18-7, ranked 25th) saw its two-game winning streak end, falling to Baylor 79-62. This line is listed as a 1-point road favorite opened by Kansas. The crowd is 79% betting on Kansas, stretching a short choke. This lopsided bet pushed Kansas from -1 to -2. However, we are now seeing sharp buying on Oklahoma and the points, with most of the market squeezing Oklahoma from +2 to -115, indicating a possible fall to +1.5. In other words, Oklahoma is valued as an overrated underdog in the heavy betting game. Oklahoma only accepts 21% of spread bets but 36% of spread dollars, indicating a huge odds spread in their favor. This is also a “Ken Pom Sound the Alarm” game, as Ken Pom Oklahoma wins the game outright (72-71), giving Oklahoma +2 actionable value. Oklahoma has a huge edge in offensive rebound percentage (31% to 26%). Oklahoma is 13-2 at home and Kansas is just 2-5 on the road. This is Oklahoma’s revenge site for a 78-66 road loss to Kansas on Jan. 13.