With Jonathan Taylor out, Zack Moss is back in, and we have some managers who want more Week 13 fantasy football rankings than anyone thought. With six teams bye, game previews and sleepers are even more important to ensure you win and get into the fantasy playoffs.
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13th week release | Week 13 SOS Levels (THU)
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Week 13 fantasy football preview
** Byes: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG **
Note: All They are statistics From the 7th week – Unless otherwise noted. Because an offseason adjustment can change things, it’s good to look at recent performances and throughout the year defensively, etc.
Abbreviations
- RBTouch% – RB Touch Percentage – The player’s percentage of the team’s total RB Touches
- TmTGT% – Team Target Percentage – The percentage of the team’s total goals going to that player
- TGT% – The percentage of time a player is on target when running lanes
- G2G and GL — goal-to-go (within the 10-yard line) and goal-line (within the 5-yard line)
- TmAirYD% – Team Air Yards Percentage – The percentage of the team’s total air yards going to that player
- CPO – Completion Percent Above Expected – Completion is an adjustment for passing difficulty (depth, coverage, etc.) to exceed the allowed completion percentage.
- YPRR — yards per route run — a rather useful indicator
- APA – Edit Points Allowed (link to tables above)
Seahawks at Cowboys, TNF
- If Kenneth Walker returns, he’s a dangerous RB2, and Zach Charbonnet is an RB3 – James Conner is the only one to top 69 rushing yards or 85 total yards against the Cowboys.
- The Cowboys have the highest EPA/Play, EPA per Dropback, Points Margin (+108) and TD/Drive% (43.1), plus the second highest YD/Play (6.6 — 49ers at 6.9).
- DK Metcalf averages 21.0 more YPR (37.3 to 16.3) at 7+ when down by 7 or more – Tyler Lockett is more game script neutral at 3.0.
Colts at Titans, 1 p.m
- Zack Moss is a top 15 option until Jonathan Taylor returns. In the three games with Moss active and before Taylor’s return – and two more after Taylor was active – Moss finished RB 10, 4, 21, 2, 9, respectively – and then still finished 30, 14, 49, 70, 31. .
- In games with a rushing touchdown, Derrick Henry averaged 22.0 FPPG compared to 7.4 FPPG in games without a rushing TD. The Colts have given up 11 rushing TDs (in fifth).
- Josh Downes has been targeted on 28.1% of the routes, 10th highest (20 targets per minute) – Michael Pittman is sixth on 30.2%.
Chargers at Veterans, 1 p.m
- Demario Douglas has 23.5 TmTGT% (21st) and 27.0 TGT% (14th) – min. 20 targets.
- If Douglas plays, he should start a lean week and be a great matchup (which helped Jordan Love get back on track in Week 11). If not, DeVant Parker is a risk/reward WR4.
- If Joshua Palmer returns, he’s in the game as the WR3 — unless he’s limited all week. Palmer is the second option (when healthy) that pushes Jalen Gayton into Hail Mary territory. Without Palmer, Guyton is the WR4 that is backed for more.
- If you’re desperate for last, Hunter Henry is a good gamble with the Chargers highest TE APA (14.4).
Lions at Saints, 1 p.m
- If Chris Olave plays, you start him. If he goes out and plays Rashid Shahi (unlikely), Shahid will be a solid WR3. If both pan out, AT Perry is a risk/reward WR3/4.
- David Montgomery is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, behind only Keaton Mitchell (7.5) and Jaylen Warren (5.0) — while Jahmir Gibbs is 21st at 3.0. Montgomery and Gibbs were first tied in yards before meeting at 2.5.
- While welcome back, Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in targets (36), receptions (31) and receiving yards (269) — with Rashad White sixth (29), second (27) and second (266).
Falcon by Jet, 1 hour
- Not surprisingly, the Jets have the lowest WR APA (19.8 — CLE is second at 23.6).
- Some of Brace Hall’s biggest runs have come on touchdowns or more, as he’s averaging 3.0 more YPC on downs than 7 or more on 7+ (also, the Jets haven’t been picked off by 7+ that often).
- As seen last week, the Falcons are happy when they’re close or leading, and Bijan Robinson is averaging 1.7 more YPC when he’s up 7+ (eighth-biggest gap).
- Garrett Wilson has the fourth-highest YPR gap of 7 or more at 21.8 when he’s down 7+.
Cardinals at Steelers, 1 p.m
- If Michael Wilson eventually returns, he’s a tough matchup, but he’s worth the WR4 gamble. If he’s out safely, Greg Dortch takes the position with a little more risk.
- It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but many quarterbacks average more yards per drop when dropped by 7 or more. Still, Kyler Murray is fourth with 5.1 more YPD, while Kenny Pickett is the opposite, averaging 3.7 more YPD on 7+ downs or more (the third-largest gap behind Zach Wilson and Desmond Reeder).
- Jaylen Warren has the second highest percentage of 10+ yards (14) and those runs (23.7% – Keaton Mitchell is first at 24.1%). Naje Harris has nine but only 11.3% of his runs (22nd).
Dolphins at Chiefs, 1 p.m
- The Dolphins have the eighth-highest point differential in the first half (+30) while the Chiefs have the fifth-lowest (-62). This should lead to a pass-happy approach and sneaky Antonio Gibson value.
- The Chiefs are the top-rated APA for QBs (26.1 — LAC is second at 23.8) and WRs (45.0 — LAC is second at 37.7).
- Raheem Mostert is still in the RB1 discussion on the Chiefs if De’Von Achane returns, with Achane as a high-ceiling RB2 play. With Achan out, Mostert is pushing the top 5 and Jeff Wilson is the RB3.
Broncos at Texas, 1 p.m
- Noah Brown is struggling to return, but if he does you can play him as a high risk/reward WR3/4. Boone led several broad categories in Weeks 8-10.
- Texans allowed the lowest YPC to RBs (CAR, TB, CIN, ARI, JAX) at 3.13 – Dolphins second at 3.24. Javonte Williams is averaging 3.45 YPC over his last four games (KC, BUF, MIN, CLE).
- The Broncos have the sixth-best pass defense and second-fewest WR FPPG, but allow the highest YPC to RBs (5.14), the most missed tackles per attempt (0.26) and the highest RB APA (26.9).
Panthers at Buccaneers, 4 p.m
- The Panthers have the fewest yards before contact at 0.46 (TEN is second-lowest at 0.50 – DET is best at 2.16) and has the sixth-highest rushing % allowed at 40.1.
- The Buccaneers allowed two running backs (D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor) a career-high 78 rushing yards. Taylor is the only one with a rushing touchdown against them (two).
- On the other hand, the Bucs have the highest passing YPG (304.5), third-highest YPA (8.62), fifth-highest QB FPPG (22.0), third-highest WR FPPG (26.6) and highest YPRR (1.86).
Browns at Rams, 4 p.m
- If Amari Cooper plays, Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker remains a dangerous WR3. Elias Moore has a bit of upside to his WR3 value and will replace him at more safety if Cooper is out and Cedric Tillman will be the power mary option.
- The Browns have the most plays/G (72.7 — WAS is second at 71.0), but are ninth-lowest in TD/Drive% (15.8).
- They are also strong against the pass with the lowest QB APA (12.4), but are more vulnerable against the run, ranking 14th in FPPG (IND, SEA, ARI, BAL, PIT, DEN).
- Kieran Williams’ game completions: RB7, 4, 26, 3, 30, 2, 1. He’s also averaging 3.8 more yards per carry when the Rams are down by 7 or more (second biggest to Justice Hill’s 4.3).
49ers at Eagles, 4 p.m
- The 49ers allow a league-high 43.6 sacks but Brock Purdy has only been sacked once, and the Eagles are sixth-lowest in Sack% Dropback (4.8 – leading the Chiefs at 12.0).
- If Dallas Goedert returns, he’ll pick Devonta Smith and his recent success – Smith is 19.1 TmTGT%, 15.5 TGT%, 27.3 TmAirYD% with Goedert on the field and 35.5%, 26.7% and 53.4% without him – but… 49ers second lowest TE APA ( 7.4) Goedert can be a die option.
- Smith sees a 24.4 TGT% while the Eagles score 7+ points just 13.7% when trailing by 7 or more.
Chiefs at Packers, SNF
- If Aaron Jones doesn’t return, AJ Dillon is the sound backup RB2, adding rushing attempts along with Jayden Reed. If Jones returns, he’s a risk/reward RB2 and Dillon a ho-hum RB3.
- Reed does more when going down 7 or more with a YPR of 10.6 (12th most while tracking).
- Rashee Rice has 15.9 TmTGT% but only 9.7 TmAirYD, Justin Watson has 12.5% (second among major WRs) and 26.1% (first).
Bengals at Jaguars, MNF
- Bengals 13.7 YPR, league high, Lions second at 13.0, Panthers (8.35) and Bears (8.81) the two toughest.
- Joe Mixon saw a career low of 10 touches, eight hurries, 2.0 YPC and 7.0 FP against Jack Browning last week.
- The Jaguars allow the second fewest RB FPPG and only two RBs have run for a touchdown against them (Dameon Pierce Week 3, Zack Moss Week 6).
Week 13 fantasy football is a sleeper.
These are. Sleepy (Ducktales and Dark Duck Style – Wow-oh It’s worth the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous Hail Mary if you want). Do not copy my standards 100%. This is about chasing upside and often involves more risk – simply put, they are the reverse plays you can consider on a hard floor option.
Woo-oo worthy
- QB: Sam Howell, WSH
- Breeder: Jaylen Warren, PIT; Jerome Ford, CLE
- WR: Adam Thielen, Car; Josh Downs, IND
- TE: Juwan Johnson, no.
Let’s be dangerous
- QB: Jared Goff, DET
- RB: De’Von Achane, MIA (with Jeff Wilson Achane out); Tyler Alger, ATL
- WR: Jayden Reed, GB; George Pickens, PIT
- T: Tyler Conklin, NJ
Have fun with levels!
As I was eating some Thanksgiving gifts, I thought, “I should have taken the time to heat up the turkey with a little gravy or better yet. Oh, and those mashed potatoes will never come out as good again. So, on to this week’s rankings…
Worst reheated foods
- Fish – especially in the microwave. There is a special place for bad people to do this in the workplace.
- Shrimp – second only to fish – is probably the worst, because the process is not the same.
- French Fries – Don’t listen to the “air fryer” people, because the fries aren’t as good the second time around.
- Chinese – It always seems like a good idea until it’s half over, and somehow all the temps, chewy meat, and chunks of rice have dried out.
- Vegetables – they all suck, but the special voice of the stepchild is the worst for Brussels sprouts.
- Eggs – When it takes a minute to make a fresh dessert, does salmonella pose a threat to rubber eggs? let’s see.
- Bacon – with microwaves and re-bakes – who needs that extra chewy nonsense?
- Mashed Potatoes – They don’t heat up evenly, the texture is gone, and there are now weird, cool clumps that weren’t there before.
- Turkey – If you try to microwave it, it’s completely dry and hard as a shoe.
- Steaks (and Burgers) – Most red meats don’t work in the microwave, and why should you? Like bacon, just reheat on the grill/stove-top – however, burgers are even closer to junk because the toppings and toppings are ruined.
Best for: Any Italian – Pizza is king, especially since you can eat it cold in any form.
Week 13 fantasy football projects
🚨 Necks up 🚨 These levels may vary, and mine Levels is the order in which I start players. Out of further context, for example, “higher up is needed, even if it’s dangerous.” In addition, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point punts and half-PPR
Added Thursday download link
The 13th week of fantastic football
🚨 Necks up 🚨
- No gadget is perfect, unfortunately, yet. I know many are looking at this on your phone, but 1) use the level widget on your PC/laptop/etc. If possible or 2) open it in your phone’s browser especially for Android users so that scrolling works properly.
- ECR = “Expert” Consensus Rating (which isn’t consistently updated by everyone, so take it with a grain of salt).
- Updated regularly, so be sure to check out the lineup.
(Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)