I think the most frustrating part of these playoffs is how Lamar Jackson fared last season. But no one signed a waiver and now they don’t feel stupid?
Except… the Baltimore Ravens announced they would match any offer, and other teams didn’t like to do a lot of math and contract mumbo jumbo just to make the Ravens’ lives easier. Jackson is never found.
But instead of listening to people rant about how Brooke Purdy is the best, I signed up for a three-part documentary. Or an overrated game manager.
He was the last drafted second-year player to start and run with. Purdy has good mechanics, knows the system well and knows how to get his talented teammates the ball in good spots. time. Purdy didn’t play well last week against the Green Bay Packers, but he didn’t turn the ball over and he played Jordan Love in the fourth quarter, making some clutch plays on the game-winning final drive.
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Brock Purdy with the edge, and other 49ers issues and solutions
Purdy doesn’t throw a wet ball well, but neither did Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. I won’t compare the three…unless I say Purdy won’t have to deal with a wet ball again this season and can win a Super Bowl just like them.
last week: 2-2 on the spread, 1-1 on the best bet.
Postseason Record: 5-5 on the spread, 2-2 on the best bet.
Regular season record: 135-130-7 on the spread, 48-41-1 on the best bet.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the selection is made. Click here For live opportunities.
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What separates the Bills from the Chiefs (not just Patrick Mahomes): Sando’s pick six
Well, last week we bet against Patrick Mahomes again… I don’t know if that’s the definition of insanity or stupidity. While he is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, we lost because the Buffalo Bills, already thin, linebackers continued to drop like flies. That, and a baffling fake punt, a missed Josh Allen throw into the end zone, a Stefon Diggs throw. And Missed field goal.
The Chiefs won by 3 points, but lost Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney to an injury. He didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday and is questionable for Sunday, which is a big loss for a stout Ravens defense. Despite not recording a sack in the division-round win over the Houston Texans, the Ravens pressured CJ Stroud on 48.6 percent of his passes last week, the most of any team this postseason.
The Ravens have a more complete team than the Chiefs, and they’re at home. You may not know how complete they are – these Ravens and the 2007 New England Patriots are the only teams in NFL history with a plus-100 point differential with playoff teams. Jackson threw for two touchdowns and ran for two last week, and the Chiefs had trouble dealing with Allen in the pocket in the divisional round.
The bosses have a good secondary so they should be able to take the zai flowers. But tight end Mark Andrews is back, and even though the Chiefs allow 6.4 yards per pass attempt to tight ends (third best in the NFL), the combination of Andrews and Isaiah will likely be very difficult.
The Chiefs’ receivers have also been disappointing — that is, until Marquez Valdes-Scantling made two ridiculous attempts last week. That’s less than a lunar eclipse. Tight end Travis Kelce looked old and beat up last week with no linebackers available. Did we mention the Ravens got an extra day off this week?
So, yes, we will face Mahomes again in the playoffs. The third time is the charm. If he gets to the Super Bowl this year, with this team, the AFC will never stop him.
The choice: crows
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It’s just that the Ravens have to go through the Chiefs to earn a trip to the Super Bowl.
We’ve looked up some numbers for you, but we’re going with our gut on this one. When the 49ers didn’t play well on offense or defense and still beat the Packers last week, we immediately thought the 49ers had won the Super Bowl. They have more talent than any team, and the weather won’t be a factor the rest of the way.
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NFC title game keys: Can the 49ers stop the run? Will the Lions’ pass defense deliver?
The Lions play with a lot of confidence, but they have three problems.
One, the 49ers know how to defend against hometown boy and former division rival Jared Goff. Goff has more career touchdown passes than any opponent against the 49ers (17), but has lost five straight meetings and completed less than 60 percent of his passes in those five losses. (The Lions have a very good offensive line, but I think having Nick Bosa and Chase Young back makes Goff too comfortable.)
Two, the Lions like to use motion to control defensive coverages, but the 49ers have allowed the NFL’s third-lowest passer rating on pre-snap plays this season (79.3).
Three, the biggest weakness of the four remaining teams is the Lions’ secondary. I’m not sure the 49ers need Debo Samuels this week, but he could try and play through his broken shoulder.
I don’t think this one is close.
The pick: 49ers
Best bet: 49ers Lions above.
– Submitted by Jason Starrett of TruMedia Research.