NFL NationESPNRead 9 minutes
Barry Sanders is impressed with what he sees from the Lions
Hall of Famer Barry Sanders talks to Pat McPhee about how this season’s Lions are a real contender in the NFC.
Plus, ESPN Stats & Info provides great stats and bets for every game, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes into the numbers by game prediction. Analysis writer Seth Walder picks each matchup’s biggest X-factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody provides helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for all three games. Everything you need to know is here in one place to help you prepare for a packed Thursday afternoon of NFL football.
Jump to a match.
GB-DET | WSH-DAL | SF-Sea
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Distribution: Dal-11 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: The Cowboys have won four of their last five while the Chiefs have lost four of five. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has a 9-2 record against Washington with 19 touchdown passes and four interceptions and has beaten the Chiefs twice on Thanksgiving (2016, 2018), throwing three touchdown passes and zero picks. He leads the NFL in QBR since Week 4 (76.6), and Prescott looks set to keep his hot streak rolling. But remember he’s also 3-3 on the holiday with nine touchdowns and five interceptions in his career. — Todd Archer
A bold prediction; Dallas receiver CeeDee Lamb has three catches for 20-plus yards en route to a 140-yard, two-TD day against Washington. The Chiefs’ defense is tied for the NFL’s most passing plays of 20 yards or more allowed (43), while the Cowboys’ offense ranks fifth in passing plays of 20-plus yards through the air (41 completions). And Lam leads the NFL with 22 such receptions. — John Chem
To know: Chiefs quarterback Sam Howell has been sacked 51 times this season. More bad news for Washington? The Cowboys pressured a league-high 39% of their opponents on downs.
Related X factor: Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland. He’s tied for the NFL record with four pick-sixes and is now up against the somewhat misplaced Howell. This — and Dallas’ Week 18 game against Washington — are likely opportunities to break Bland’s record. — Walder
Cons: Commanders Cowboys
What you need to know about nightmares: The Chiefs’ defense gives up the third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Lamb averaged seven targets and 11.7 fantasy points in six games with the Chiefs. Chances are the lamb will be bigger than game averages on Thanksgiving. Check out the Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting Nugget: Since the 1970 merger, the Cowboys are 12-0 actually and 9-3 ATS as double-digit favorites on Thanksgiving. However, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS this season as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS as road underdogs. Read more.
Can Sam Howell be trusted with his fantasy against the Cowboys?
Eric Moody has Sam Howell as the low-end QB1 despite a strong matchup against the Cowboys this week.
Moody’s Choice; Cowboys 34, Chiefs 31
Walder’s Choice: Cowboys 34, Chiefs 20
FPI Forecast: DAL, 85.1% (average 13.9 points)
Thanksgiving Return: In the year In 1974, backup quarterback Clint Longley stepped in for an injured Roger Staubach against the Cowboys trailing Washington 16-3. Longley led Dallas in the win, completing 11 passes for 203 yards. He had a 50-yard touchdown return to Drew Pearson with 28 seconds left and the extra point to give the Cowboys a 24-23 win. Read more.
Matchup should read: Chiefs rotation faces tough stretch after Giants loss… Cowboys focus turns to Chiefs after sweeping Panthers
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Distribution: SF-7 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Even at full strength, the Seahawks will have their hands full against a superior 49ers team that beat them three times last season, 89-43. This game became even more difficult when quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker III suffered injuries on Sunday. Pete Carroll is hopeful Smith can play through a triceps contusion, but Walker’s status remains up in the air after he suffered a strained hamstring and missed the opening series. Seattle will select Zach Charbonnet as the RB1 in Walker’s absence (and Drew Lock under center if Smith can’t go) in the starting second round. — Brady Henderson
A bold prediction; Niners quarterback Nick Bosa will have the third three-sack game of his career. Seattle has been forced to use a rotation of offensive linemen due to injuries, and despite getting healthy, Bosa and San Francisco’s defensive line has found a rhythm since the arrival of Chase Young a few weeks ago. In a short week with some health uncertainty on the Seahawks offense, this could be the week where more pressures from Bosa (27 this season) turn into sacks. – Nick Wagoner
To know: San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown three touchdowns in the past two games. The last 49ers player with three or more passing TDs in three consecutive games was Jeff Garcia in 2001. Oh, and Purdy is 5-0 with nine touchdown passes and zero interceptions against division opponents, including playoffs.
Related X factor: Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner. As a linebacker, he ranks fourth in run-stop percentage (41.5%), and no team has a more designed run rate than the 49ers this season. — Walder
Cons: 49ers | Seahawks
What you need to know about nightmares: The 49ers are heavily favored on the road against a Seahawks team that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, setting up Christian McCaffrey for a big performance. But tight end George Kittle can also post big numbers. He has collected 13 receptions, 274 yards and two touchdowns in his past two visits to Seattle. Check out the Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting Nugget: The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS in division games — but 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Read more.
Moody’s Choice; 49ers 35, Seahawks 17
Walder’s Choice: 49ers 26, Seahawks 23
FPI Forecast: SF, 73.2% (average 8.3 points)
Thanksgiving Return: In 2014, the Seahawks and 49ers met on Thanksgiving and the Seahawks won 19-3. Running back Marshawn Lynch had 20 carries for 104 yards and cornerback Richard Sherman had two interceptions. Read more.
Matchup should read: Three-game stretch could decide 49ers’ playoff fate … Carroll Smith believes he’ll play Thursday … Hufanga tore ACL
Thanksgiving game
12:30 p.m. ET | Fox | Distribution: IT -7.5 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: In Detroit, Thanksgiving and football go together like peanut butter and jelly. They haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016. Now the Packers roll into town looking to dampen the Lions’ hype train, having won two of their last three games. But Green Bay lost four in a row against the Lions for the second-longest streak in franchise history. — Eric Woodyard
A bold prediction; The Lions will not pick Packers quarterback Jordan Love. They found him twice in the Week 4 meeting, and had an interception in two of the past 3 games. Since Weeks 1-2, Love hasn’t gone a streak without an interception, but that could change. He didn’t throw anything Sunday against the Chargers, perhaps his best of the season. Look for him to continue that pace against Detroit, tied for 17th in the NFL with eight defensive interceptions. — Rob Demowski
To know: Lions quarterback Jared Goff has had plenty of success against the Packers, posting a 5-1 record in the regular season with Green Bay. He is tied with the Packers for the third-best winning percentage by a starting QB since 1950, trailing Jim McMahon and Bobby Laine.
Related X factor: Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon. He’s Green Bay’s slot corner, which means he draws wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. Those packages are two of the most important pass rushers to stop if they are going to slow down the Lions’ passing offense. — Walder
Cons: Riders Lions
What you need to know about nightmares: Jayden Reed leads all Packers wide receivers in receiving yards (463) and scored a 32-yard rushing touchdown against the Chargers on Sunday. With running back Aaron Jones out with a knee injury, Reed could play a Debo Samuel-like role for the Packers. He ranks among the top 20 wide receivers with 3.1 fantasy points per touchdown. Check out the Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting Nugget: The Lions are 11-1 in their last 12 division games against the spread (ATS). Read more.
Moody’s Choice; Lions 34, Packers 21
Walder’s Choice: Lions 30, Packers 20
FPI Forecast: DET, 64% (4.8 point average)
Thanksgiving Return: This is the first Packers-Lions matchup on Thanksgiving since 2013, but these NFC North foes are no strangers to meeting on Turkey Day. It will be the 22nd time Detroit and Green Bay have met on Thanksgiving Day, the most ever by either franchise. The Lions hold a 12-8-1 edge in their previous 21 games. Read more.
Matchup should read: Love made a statement during the Packers’ win over the Chargers … Williams finally felt like ‘part of the herd’ in Detroit.