NFL odds and picks
By now you’ve probably heard about the Colts’ perennial struggles in Jacksonville. If you haven’t, let me remind you:
- The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since the 2014 season.
- The Jaguars are 6-0 at home against the Colts since 2015, averaging 16.8 points per game.
- Since 2015, the Jaguars are 6-0 ATS at home against the Colts, averaging 20.1 points per game.
- The Jaguars have won each of their last four games against SU by an average margin of victory of 11.5 against 19.3 and coverage margin of 19.3.
It’s no wonder the Colts struggle in a matchup like this. The familiarity of divisional matchups turns into an even matchup. And as a dome team, the Colts aren’t used to playing in the hot and humid Jacksonville climate.
But there’s more to this game than just the streak in Jacksonville’s favor. The Colts’ best defensive back (LB Shaquille Leonard) has been ruled out for the second week in a row. Their best pass rusher (WR Michael Pittman) was demoted from a limited practice participant on Wednesday to a DNP with a quad issue on Thursday and Friday. Another of their starting WRs (Alec Pierce) was sidelined with a concussion.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, did not list a single player on the latest injury report.
Couple that with a newly acquired, aging quarterback other than Pittman who doesn’t have many pass rushers on offense and the loss of a defensive leader (Leonard), and you’ve got a weak and mediocre team that can’t sack a team like his. Texas on the road.
The Jags will present a very difficult matchup for the Colts. The new-look offense under Doug Pederson and Press Taylor averaged 6.1 yards per game against Washington in Week 1. And Jacksonville’s defensive strength is stopping the run (3.0 yards per carry allowed on 28 carries), which fits perfectly with what the Colts want to do. make it offensive.
According to Action Labs data, Week 2 underdogs have lost by 6 points or less in Week 1 62-34-2 (65%) since 2005, a spread that has won by an average of 1.9 points per game.
The home dogs in this position were better, going 26-12 (68%) ATS and hitting the shutout by an average of 2.6 points.
This is a great place to sell high on the Giants.
While Daniel Jones is 13-6 (68%) ATS on the road, he is just 7-12 (37%) ATS at home. This is the offense that went scoreless for the first 34 minutes of the game in Week 1, one where Richie James Jr. was the primary target and David Sills was the WR who ran 57 percent of the way. And one of the more explosive pass catchers — Wan’Dell Robinson (knee strain) and Kadarius Toney (questionable hamstring) — are both injured.
The Panthers can use Christian McCaffrey to exploit a Giants linebacking corps that is absolutely horrible in pass coverage. The Giants’ starting linebackers are Tae Crowder and Austin Calitro. Crowder has received coverage in the bottom-15 percent of PFF every year. Calitro, an undrafted free agent since 2017, made his first start in three years last week and ranked as the worst linebacker in the league in coverage.
Combined, those LBs allowed seven completions on eight targets for 102 yards and two TDs, both scores going to RB Dontrell Hilliard. Good luck with CMC.
The Giants will also be without No. 2 cornerback Aaron Robinson. Adoree Jackson is great, but he can’t cover DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson at the same time.
As I have stated many times, the key to beating Baker Mayfield is applying pressure. of Brownies They managed to do that, falling by 42.4% last week, putting pressure on the fifth-highest in week 1. The Giants, meanwhile, only pressured Ryan Tannehill on 25.4% of his drops, fifth-lowest – and that was with them. It blinks on 45.7% of its dropdowns.
In Action Labs, Week 2 Dogs by four or fewer points are 26-14 (65%) ATS in Week 2 since 2005. ATS losses in Week 1 were 56-32-2 (64%) in Week 2.
If it wasn’t clear last Sunday night in Dallas, this isn’t the same. Bucks Misdemeanor.
The Bucs scored just 19 points in Week 1 while rushing 33 times and passing just 29 times. Although the Saints had a tough time stopping the run against the Warriors Hawk Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Mariota’s unconventional rushing attack are among the NFL’s best run defenses every year and present a tough matchup on the ground. Cowboys.
But the Bucs may struggle even more if they try to vent. In five meetings against the Saints as a member of the Bucs, Tom Brady has failed to throw for 240 yards in four of them. In one season (in New Orleans last season), he made three turnovers, including a game-clinching pick-six.
The Saints have a formula for success with Brady as they get interior pressure, and Marcus Lattimore always has Mike Evans under his regular averages.
Also, the Bucs offensive line is an issue this year. Their three new starters on the inside line combined to allow five touchdowns and four hurries against Dallas last week. Donovan Smith (elbow) is questionable with a concussion, and his replacement, Josh Wells, allowed two pressures and a sack on just 19 snaps last week, according to Pro Football Focus. The last time these two teams met, the Saints shut out the Bucks 9-0.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have three quality cornerbacks in Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting who can go toe-to-toe with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. And with Vita Vea propping up their interior, the Bucs also have one of the NFL’s best run defenses in perpetuity thanks to injuries to Alvin Kamara (questionable ribs) and Mark Ingram. (questionable-ankle).
Just in case we see one of these teams fall behind, I’ll split my room between the full game and the first half. Brady in comeback mode is still Brady, and Jameis Winston is responsible for giving up six points to a defense anytime he is in comeback mode.
According to our Action Lab data, the Week 2 division is under 40-22-2 (65%) since 2005 when the total opened at 43 or higher.
Wilson sat out a lot of the first quarter, but finished with four goals on eight targets in the first game. Wilson should be more involved this week. According to Zack Rosenblatt of The athletics“,[Jets head coach Robert] Saleh Wilson said he didn’t play much in the early going because the Jets focused on using their 12-man (one running back, two tight ends) and 13-man (one RB, three TE) packages against the Ravens.
No. 2 tight end CJ Uzomah is questionable this week, with a converted wide receiver (Lawrence Kager), a practice squad call-up (Kenny Yeboah) and a rookie who was a healthy scratch in Week 1 (Jeremy Ruckert) at tight end behind rookie Tyler Conklin.
In addition to more packages featuring wide receivers this week, Wilson should improve playing time because No. 4 receiver Braxton Berrios, who had six fewer carries than Wilson (35) last week, is listed as questionable with a heel injury. . Wilson moved between the slot and the outside in Week 1, so Denzel Ward, Cleveland’s best cornerback, should be good enough to post at least three snaps for the second straight week.
I am selling high prices here on Washington. Both of these teams have bad defenses, but the difference is that the Lions are less likely to turn the ball over in Jared Goff’s quarterback. This is also a good situational position for the Lions, as they are still hungry for a 1-0 win in their second straight home game, and Washington could face a major setback in their first road game since last week’s home win.
According to our Action Lab data, Week 2 home teams vs. covered visitors at home in Week 1 are 60-50-2 (55%) ATS since 2005, including 8-4 (67%) when favored by a field goal.