The recent bias that we’ve seen in Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s pursuit gives the impression that it’s the hiring of a Japanese pitcher. The big market teams committed to Yamamoto certainly qualifies his free agency as unusual. But the fervor surrounding the right-hander isn’t all that different from the excitement generated by Daisuke Matsuzaka in the 2006-07 season, Yu Darvish in 2011-12 and Masahiro Tanaka in 2013-14. And for that matter, Shohei Ohtani in 2017-18.
Ohtani is in a different category, and not just because he’s a two-way player. He was 23 years old when he signed and his age limited the bonus to $2.3 million under the International Amateur Signing Rule. Better comparisons for Yamamoto are Matsuzaka, Darvish and Tanaka, who don’t face any salary cap.
Like Yamamoto, Darvish and Tanaka were entering their prime at 25 seasons. Matsuzaka is a bit older as he enters the 26-year-old campaign. In retrospect, as Yamamoto’s bid intensified, his major league experience could at least be considered instructive.
as a The athleticsAs Jason Stark and Eno Sarris have explained in separate articles, the empirical data on Yamamoto, from pitch-level evaluation to biomechanical analysis, is more extensive than any of his predecessors. Still no guarantee.
Matsuzaka, who joined the Boston Red Sox on a six-year, $52 million contract after the team won the right to the posting fee for $51.11 million, played in 61 games in his first two seasons in Boston and 55 in his last four. Injuries include a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. His adjusted ERA with the Red Sox was above league average, and he had two impressive seasons with the New York Mets after his contract expired.
Darvish, who joined the Texas Rangers for six years in a $56 million deal in addition to a $51.7 million posting fee, is perhaps the most successful of all Japanese pitchers, a two-time Cy Young Award runner-up and five-time All-American. – Star enters his 12th major league season. He had an elbow problem that required Tommy John surgery in 2015, elbow surgery for arthritis in 2018 and a concussion from a stress reaction in late 2023. But his adjusted career ERA is 17 percent above the league average. Zack Greinke, a strong hall of fame candidate, is over 21 percent.
Tanaka, who joined the New York Yankees as a seven-year, $155 million free agent, had a successful major league run after being diagnosed with a partially torn elbow ligament in his first season. Barring surgery, he averaged 27 starts over his six full seasons before the shortened 2020 campaign. According to FanGraphs’ dollar metric, WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player earns in free agency, Tanaka slightly exceeded his regular season contract. He’s been a stalwart in the postseason, putting up a 3.33 ERA in 10 starts.
In his prime, Matsuzaka showed why even he was so hyped — he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in his second season and led the majors in opponents’ batting average. However, even Darvish’s full body shows the risk of committing 10 or more years to Yamamoto, who has never pitched in the majors and is extremely athletic. But Major League executives don’t seem fazed by his diminutive stature.
Yamamoto, based on heated competition on the open market, could more than double Tanaka’s contract, excluding a potential $50 million posting fee. The buzz around it is certainly justified. The decisions teams make today are more informed than ever before. Just know that he isn’t the first 25-ish Japanese pitcher to make such a splash, and he won’t be the last.
Next up, sometime in the next several years: Rocky Sasaki, 22.
What to do in Burns
The Milwaukee Brewers’ interest in trading righty Corbin Burns is unclear. But there’s a chance the team could hold Burns into the offseason because it wants to compete with owner Mark Attanasio and avoid the kind of backlash the team received in trading Josh Hader in 2022, major league sources said. .
If the Brewers can’t contend, they could move Burns at the 2024 deadline as long as he’s healthy and get an equivalent or possibly better return. The problem right now is that there are too many free agents available for teams open to trading starting pitching. Of those, only Blake Snell needed to lose a draft pick. The rest just charge money, allowing teams to keep their picks and chances.
It also reduces the Brewers’ chances of a significant comeback: it’s Burns. It is planned to earn 15.1 million dollars In his final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Unlike Tyler Glasnow, who went from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, teams see him as unlikely to sign an extension. Burns agent Scott Boras generally prefers that his clients set their values on the open market. Glasnow is represented by Wasserman Media Group, which has historically been more open to such deals.
Atanasio, then, may very well be thinking: Why would they do this? Why don’t you try competing first? The Brewers have proven to be very adept at maximizing limited resources, making the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. All those postseason appearances, however, came with Craig Counsell as manager. Come to think of it, that could be another reason for Athanasio to keep Burns and, for that matter, Willie Adams at shortstop. Certainly, the owner is very fond of Counsell, who stands for the rival Chicago Cubs.
The problem with keeping Burns is that he could get hurt before the end of the season, or maybe his performance will slow down. If the Brewers contend, trading Burns and Adams doesn’t seem out of the question for an organization scarred by Hader’s fall. So for Burns, Adams and Brandon Woodruff, who was not tendered coming off shoulder surgery, the Brewers could end up with just two draft picks — one if they decline to make Adams a qualifying offer.
Active, low-income teams like the Rays and Cleveland Cavaliers rarely occupy such positions. They’ll try to move quickly, which is exactly what the Brewers did with Hader, who also injured William Contreras and highly-regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser.
Perhaps the best way to look at it is this: What would the Brewers’ NL Central rivals do? Have you strengthened the club for the long term by selling Burns or Adams, players who would add to the team’s young talent? Or take one last shot at Burns and Adams in 2024, then just lose one or both of them for draft picks?
The answer seems obvious. But for Athanasio, the choice may not be easy.
Injustice in the pre-Friday bonus pool?
The pre-arbitration bonus pool is intended to provide additional compensation to players with zero to three years of service. But in 2023, the system’s second year, more money went to already well-compensated players.
According to the numbers Acquired by the Associated Press, three of the performance-based bonuses were awarded to players signed to long-term extensions — Julio Rodriguez ($210 million), Corbin Carroll ($111 million) and Spencer Strider ($75 million). Together, the trio received an additional $5,370,519, more than 10 percent of the $50 million pool.
Why didn’t they remove players with long term guarantees from the pool allowing the money to be distributed to players without such guarantees? The union tried to do this in the last round of collective bargaining, the sources said in the discussion. Money from the bonus pool, the union believes, could discourage 0-for-3s from signing below-market extensions.
The league refused to grant the union’s request on the grounds that a player receiving a bonus must receive it regardless of contract status. Extensions for 0-3 players generally involve low salaries in the early years, with big money coming later. Rodriguez and Carroll, however, received signing bonuses of $15 million and $5 million, respectively (Stroder’s deal did not include a signing bonus).
Adjustments to the way the money is distributed by December 1, 2026 are highly unlikely under the current CBA. But the association is sure to renew its attempt to increase the pool from 50 million dollars in the next round. . And if 0-for-3 long-term guarantees continue to receive high bonuses, it may be worth re-examining how the money is distributed.
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(Top photo of Yamamoto: Koji Watanabe / Getty Images)