10:10 The Mariners announced the trade.

9:52 am. Seattle is sending out a right-handed reliever. Eric Swanson And the hope of coagulation Adam McCoy In the business to the Blue Jays, Distribution of reports.

9:49 a.m. Scott Mitchell of TSN Tweets In return for Hernandez, the Blue Jays will receive bullpen help. Ryan Davis of the Seattle Times Tweets That is a known business candidate Chris Flexon. it is. not at all part of this agreement.

9:41 am. Mariners and Blue Jays agree on trade for right fielder Teoscar Hernandez From Toronto to Seattle, ESPN’s Jeff Passa reports (Twitter link).

Hernandez, who turned 30 a month ago, gives the Marrakes a heart-of-the-order slugger who posted a .283/.333/.519 batting line with 73 home runs and 71 doubles in 1,337 plate appearances. Three seasons. Hernandez has been a Statcast darling since his big league debut, routinely posting high exit rates and slugging rates; In the year That was no different in 2022 when Statcast ranked him in the 94th percentile or better in hard hitting, average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, barrel size and expected slugging percentage.

That comes at a price for great relationships and the power that Hernandez emanates, it should be noted. Hernandez was a 28.4% hitter in his plus pitches last season, despite holding back his once-sky-high strikeout rate. He’s dropped his strikeout rate to 24.9% in 2021, so maybe there’s hope for more upside, but right now that number is a stark figure for the rest of his career. His walk rate, meanwhile, has languished in the six- to seven-percent range over the past few seasons — well shy of league average.

Aside from his massive power potential, Hernandez has deceptive speed. He’s collected just 24 steals (in 32 attempts) over the last three seasons, including just six in 2022, but Hernandez’s hitting streak ranks in the 84th percentile among MLB players on Statcast. With slightly larger bases expected to run a bit more in 2023, Hernandez is one of several players who could start pitching with less frequency. Hernandez is also known for having one of the strongest throwing arms in the game. Despite this speed and arm strength, he draws below-average grades for his glovework in right field; Defensive runs saved and above-average strikeouts have made him a negative defender in each of the past four seasons. In the year In 2022, he averaged 3 DRS, 5 OAA and 3.1 end zone.

While his speed and arm haven’t translated to right field, Hernandez has been an above-average player in recent years when looking at the sum of his parts. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have credited the reliever with eight wins over his past 324 games. Those 324 games spanned three seasons, though one was the shortened 2020 campaign. Overall, Hernandez avoided serious injuries. He missed three weeks this season with a strained strain and is sidelined for 2021 with a positive covid test (plus a few games on the paternity list). Overall, however, he has played 84.3% of the team’s games since 2020.

Barring an extension, Hernandez would be a one-year rental for Marin — and a relatively expensive one at that. Hernandez will reach six years of service in 2023 and will become a free agent next summer. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects A whopping $14.1MM salary for him this season.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said at last week’s GM meeting that he wanted at least one outfield upgrade this summer, if not two. Hernandez should move into right field with a center fielder. Julio RodriguezBut being in Seattle raises some more questions. The club chose not to make a qualified offer Mitch HanigerFor example, and while the acquisition of Hernandez would prevent Haninger from returning to cornering in the outfield, today’s trade naturally makes it less likely to meet.

Sailors should know that they are comfortable combining previous high expectations Jared Kellenic, Kyle Lewis And Taylor Trammell In left field. Jesse Winker He’s another left field/DH option, though he was a Mariner from yesterday. Discussing business packages that include Winker. It’s easy to imagine that group with some help from service providers. Dylan Moore And Sam HaggertyHolding the fort on the corners and DH, but additional additions should not be removed.

The Mariners, after all, are in win-now mode. And even with Hernandez, they have enough salary potential; Acquiring Hernandez is a roughly $12.7MM net addition to the payroll, as Swanson is estimated to be paid $1.4MM by Swartz. They are. Planned For a salary of $143.5MM following the swap, and that’s a ways shy of the $162MM cap they earned in 2018. A return to the playoffs would raise some revenue, and MLB has agreed to a variety of potentially lucrative streaming deals for each team. More money in the five years since the previous recorded salary.

Turning to the Blue Jays side of the deal, they will simultaneously add a much-needed power arm to the bullpen and shed the aforementioned (and approximate) $12.7MM in salary. They still project what would be a franchise-record Opening Day salary in the $176MM range, but the trade adds a critical arm to the relief mix and gives them some more flexibility. Swanson, who was originally found by the Marines in the trade he sent James Paxton For the Yankees, he struggled as a starter but broke down as an absolute force in the Seattle bullpen.

Swanson’s 3.31 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 35 1/3 innings into the 2021 season was a step in that direction, but it wasn’t until this season that he became a dominant late-inning force. . Swanson’s 2022 campaign featured 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball with a 4.9% walk rate while striking out at a whopping 34%. Overall, since establishing himself in 2021, Swanson has a 2.33 ERA in 89 innings of relief — a mark largely supported by pitching-neutral metrics (2.59 FIP, 2.87 SIERA).

Swanson is a quintessential fly baller, so some are concerned about his transition from the pitcher-friendly setting at T-Mobile Park to the homer-happy Toronto Rogers Center. His balls hit with power. Among 385 pitchers with at least 80 innings over the past two seasons, Swanson has logged the sixth-best rate of infield pops in MLB.

In terms of average exit velocity (98th percentile), strikeout rate (96th), “expected” ERA and wOBA (97th), Swanson was a pitcher on the mound in 2022. “Expected” strikeout percentage (94th), strikeout total (96th) and opponents’ strikeout rate at the plate (93rd). He may not be a household name, but at least through the 2022 season, Swanson can legitimately claim to be one of MLB’s top relievers.

Unlike Hernandez, who will be a free agent next summer, Swanson is a relatively long-term piece for the Blue Jays. With more than three years of major league service under his belt, he could take control through the 2025 season. And, because his breakout is a “late bloomer,” he hasn’t built the kind of long-term record that would reward him well in his first trip through the arbitration process. The Jays will almost certainly pay Swanson less over the next three seasons than they paid Hernandez in 2023 alone.

It’s the same timeline shared by Toronto’s proposed free agent. Jordan RomanoIn the year Controlled until 2023. Swanson said he will serve as the primary setup option for Romano, even if he is joined by the Patriots. Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Adam Simber And Team Mayza In what seems to be already a deeper and more formidable aid corps.

More to come.



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